The Next Industrial Revolution?

A few years ago I heard of an interesting concept:   hyper-localized manufacturing.  The idea goes something like this:  One day, individuals will have highly sophisticated tools that can build almost any type of item by downloading instructions that are then used to “print” an object.  The concept is analogous to the transition from using FedEx to recipients’ printers.  Whereas in the old days a company would print a document and then then ship it via FedEx to a recipient, today the company can email the document and it will be printed by the recipient.  As a result, the hard document is created by the recipient.  Similarly, a table designer in the future industry could send instructions to a recipient’s tool, which would be capable of “printing” a table — or a chair, a shoe, or automobile, etc.

The idea is way out there, but supposedly Jeff Bezos and others have been very excited about the idea.

It’s hard to know if this concept will ever develop as envisioned, but I think one can make a bet that directionally the trend will be towards do-it-yourself manufacturing of some type.  The original author of “the long tail,” Chris Anderson, has laid out a pretty interesting map for how DIY manufacturing might unfold.  See the story here.

Excerpt:

Here’s the history of two decades in one sentence: If the past 10 years have been about discovering post-institutional social models on the Web, then the next 10 years will be about applying them to the real world.

This story is about the next 10 years.

Transformative change happens when industries democratize, when they’re ripped from the sole domain of companies, governments, and other institutions and handed over to regular folks. The Internet democratized publishing, broadcasting, and communications, and the consequence was a massive increase in the range of both participation and participants in everything digital — the long tail of bits.

Now the same is happening to manufacturing — the long tail of things.

The tools of factory production, from electronics assembly to 3-D printing, are now available to individuals, in batches as small as a single unit. Anybody with an idea and a little expertise can set assembly lines in China into motion with nothing more than some keystrokes on their laptop. A few days later, a prototype will be at their door, and once it all checks out, they can push a few more buttons and be in full production, making hundreds, thousands, or more. They can become a virtual micro-factory, able to design and sell goods without any infrastructure or even inventory; products can be assembled and drop-shipped by contractors who serve hundreds of such customers simultaneously.

Today, micro-factories make everything from cars to bike components to bespoke furniture in any design you can imagine. The collective potential of a million garage tinkerers is about to be unleashed on the global markets, as ideas go straight into production, no financing or tooling required. “Three guys with laptops” used to describe a Web startup. Now it describes a hardware company, too.